It’s a strange period now. Everything is back to normal but there’s these looming threats in the background. The idea that all of this can come crashing back down because the Americans and Iranians don’t come to an agreement makes you feel a bit helpless but at the same time, the sheer volume of people in the country after the ceasefire shows a strong and robust economy still existent waiting for the all-clear from the powers that be. There’s a quiet before a maybe-storm and even if that storm came, what could it look like?
My general feeling is that we won’t be going back to armed conflict and even if we were, it would be for a short while. And my initial feeling from wartime that Israel has weakened itself severely still stands; They’re not doing okay and public sentiment for Netanyahu, and Israel in general, is really bad. Open letters of insult in the open with a Hitler comparison for good measure, genuine calls to investigate arms exports, and the use of the word apartheid by Arab foreign ministries. When a selfish leader goes to untold lengths to preserve himself at the cost of Country, I guess this is what it looks like. It’s also impressive that it did not take that long for any initial pretense about what this war was about, and what it was for, to trickle down to simple worldly quarrels like reopening the Strait, reparations, and nukes. It’s so sad to see that all of this truly has been for nothing. And I don’t think people realize how staggering that is. Russia and Ukraine have something to fight over. Something tangible and real. Gains and losses can be reflected in the battlefield. But the US-Israel-Iran war? Absolutely nothing. What shame. What a strategic disaster. Anyway.
The Gaza ceasefire recently went into phase 2 and while there hasn’t been been a big change in the status quo yet, I expect that any halting or reduction of the Lebanon front for the Israelis will make them shift to Gaza once again and I’m not sure that that whole thing will turn out well politically or militarily just based on the present realities. There’s been a lot of moves with respect to Gaza, including the Board of Peace and plans to rebuild the strip and a new yellow line demarcating Israeli influence within the strip from Palestinian civil life. All of this sounds like the winner drawing out his plans and reaping the rewards of war, but there’s something important here that’s hard to explain: The winners are not winning properly. There’s no elegance to how all of this is being architected. There’s no Treaty of Jerusalem, Palestinian Right Watch, National Handover Assembly, and crucially, the ceasefire is not technically over. The weapons have not been dropped. I think where we are today can be more clearly seen mirrored by the Iranian ceasefire: America must make concessions and it simply does not feel like it needs to, and does not know how to. And that makes sense. If I lived my whole life having my cake, and eating it too, and watched generations of this behavior pass me by, I’d be a bit jaded by the changing world and feel surprised that these new guys are showing me up. And with what? Drones and stones? I’m the best! How dare you challenge me? It’s all just so messy. Politics at the high level must reflect reality. If it doesn’t, you end up in this worsening situation.
I will say, though, for the Israelis, this 40-ish-day war cost them $11 billion. That seems impressively low, suggesting that the real depletion was happening on the American side, further explaining the need for a ceasefire and why I don’t think longer armed conflict can be sustained. But for the Israelis, I wonder at what point will the soldiers say that they’re tired. All people have limits and your limits are a reflection of the life you lived. And the Israelis live good lives. With wartime slowly stretching into the third year, maybe money won’t be the key issue. It might just be morale and the army looking at its leadership and saying, “we need to wind this down. We’re tired.”
And for the Strait of Hormuz, now we have a blockade blockading a blockade. In real terms, this just means stationing some ships in a line and waiting, which is militarily cheap and easy to do. There’s no real strategy here other than delaying income for a lot of Hormuz-dependent industry. For me, as long as this doesn’t cross into more months of inaction, I see this as more damaging to Iran than the Americans and it is a surprisingly good idea, except for a small not-so-small thing.
There’s an important question: What if the Chinese want to pass this new American blockade? Are they going to stop them? The whole reason Japan bombed Peal Harbor was because of a naval blockade on their energy imports. Seems like history loves repeating itself with stories like these.
With that being said, I think China is level-headed. And I think they will council Iran to accept a peace deal at a heavy cost, promising that this long game will eventually put them on top. China cannot lose the access to natural resources if they are on the precipice of conflict. And if they aspire to be a global power, this is their time to flex these muscles and find a way to put middle powers in their place to benefit themselves while also keeping the peace and earning goodwill of millions of people. I imagine this is all humiliating for the Iranians, but it’s a smaller humiliation.
So, back to the question, if the Chinese want to pass the American blockade, what will happen? Probably not much. A few days’ delays in their energy supply until it opens up again. There might be a change to how things are done in the Strait via Iran, maybe some currency swaps and tolls in place, maybe not. But these guys have to figure things out. The way things are going, Iran can either benefit from the growing tensions in the East, or die fighting a precursor war to a larger war that they won’t have influence in. It’s smarter to realize that this war is moving East and to play the diplomatic game when that time comes.
Iran has not said a single thing about this fight being for Palestine, a gross miscalculation of propaganda. If anyone had any hope that the Iranians were fighting for Palestinian rights, we can put that to rest now. Their game of control over key trade routes and expansionist aspirations for profit have been revealed. Not a good look and it should probably lead to further dwindling of Arab support for their military and political activities.
My final concern regarding the Strait is about global shipping. The American and European media outlets love reducing my existence to a barrel of oil but the Arabian peninsula, whether by land, air, or sea, has been the global shipping and transit hub for generations. Closing off the key chokepoints are already jeopardizing this status and the further that it is closed, the more the shipping routes will shift their transit hubs elsewhere. This would be… Not great. Like at all. So I hope that cool heads prevail for a while until whatever next war happens next.
There was a joke I heard by a Twitch streamer that if America blockades the strait then China could just blockade the blockade of the blockade. Given the way this year is going, it would be miserably funny for that to happen.
That’s most of where I am now in my thinking on the war side.
Life-wise, things seem mostly okay. Business is still moving and while the pace is reduced in some areas, I’ve been largely impressed and I’m feeling patient and hopeful. I found myself having to exert a lot of calm on my colleagues during the war and the misinformation available online continues to lead to people feeling nervous and I must continue reassuring everyone. There’s a lot of junk content. Even with regard to the scale of actions being taken, the media makes everything seem so large when it’s effectively small. And at work, I do prefer a quiet approach so having to sit and talk and keep morale high is a bit draining on me and keeps me in the negative news loop, which, really, I’m not in the mood for anymore.
When the conflict was active, a lot of people were talking about working from home and school from home and all this stuff. I didn’t like that. My perspective is simple: If we stay home, the enemy wins. If the government says it’s relatively safe, we have to go to work. We keep going until it isn’t safe. If anything, this is the most important time to work. It is the government’s responsibility to keep us safe and tell us whether an area is safe or not and, needless to say, the UAE government did a great job at that. So if the conflict restarts, I’ll still say the same thing: We have to go to work. I know in some cases, it’s easier said than done, especially in the targeted financial centers and the large economic anchors like the oil and gas fields and aluminum plants, but creating economic flow isn’t about making money for the top dog. It becomes about maintaining the city and the life within it. It becomes about showing up for each other and talking to one another and socializing and seeing people’s faces. It is a form of resilience and defiance in the face of aggression. And the negative news loop hits hardest when you’re at home so I’d very much like to avoid that.
I’m sure some people saw the Iranians shopping in broad daylight for Nowruz during the war. And given the scale of the aggression on them, I imagine onlookers were impressed. We must, and will, be better.